How to Choose Your Marathon Goal Pace (What’s Your Race Pace)

Picking a marathon goal pace sounds pretty straightforward until you actually sit down to do it.

You can plug a recent race into a marathon pace calculator, look at a marathon pace chart or simply decide you REALLY want that sub 4 finish, but none of those things necessarily mean the pace is right for you.

I’ve seen so many runners throw out goals to “beat Oprah,” qualify for Boston or hit a certain round number when their current training and time to race day just don’t quite match up. And even when you plug a past race into one of those fun calculators, I’ve found they can be pretty hit or miss on predicting what you can actually do over 26.2 miles.

I love setting big goals, and I certainly don’t want anyone to feel like they should stop dreaming about what’s possible. But I’ve also coached enough runners to know that there’s a difference between the pace we WANT to run and the pace we’re currently trained to run.

So how do we figure out which marathon goal pace makes sense? We’re going to look at recent race results, marathon pace workouts, your training history and a few other things that can make a big difference on race day.

Why You Need a Marathon Goal Pace

Just like choosing the right marathon training plan, setting a marathon pace goal is not about picking a random number that sounds exciting.

Having a target pace gives you something to work toward during training, but it also helps you manage your energy once race day arrives. And with 26.2 miles to cover, getting a little too excited in those first few miles can create some big problems later.

Think about running just 20 seconds per mile faster than you’re currently trained for. That might feel like nothing during a 3 or even 6 mile training run.

By mile 18 on race day, your body is like “we are not equipped for this!” Your muscles are working significantly harder, your HR is too high and you’re burning through carbs at a crazy rate.

What we want is a pace that gives you the best chance of running a strong race based on the fitness you’ve developed.

Then you need to read our marathon pacing guide for how to actually execute on race day!

How to Set Your Marathon Goal Pace

I know some of you are hoping for a magical formula here, but there’s a reason coaches spend so much time reviewing training logs and asking questions about how workouts feel.

Two runners can have the same half marathon PR, run the same marathon training plan and still need very different goals.

Instead of focusing on one number, we’re going to look at several pieces of information that help us figure out what you can realistically expect on race day.

1. Start With a Recent Race Result

A recent race result is usually where I want runners to start because it gives us something concrete to work with instead of simply guessing at a finish time. Ideally, you’ve run a half marathon fairly recently because that’s going to tell us a lot more about your endurance than a 5K.

You can plug that result into a marathon pace calculator and get a predicted finish time, but this is where I want you to be a little careful about getting too excited by the number.

I’ve seen plenty of runners take that predicted time as a guarantee, when the calculator has no idea what their training actually looks like. It doesn’t know if you’re running 25 miles or 55 miles per week, whether you’ve consistently completed your long runs or if you’re trying to run your first marathon.

I love using race predictors to get a general idea of what’s possible, but I want to compare that result to your training before we decide it’s the pace you’re going to chase on race day.

And if you haven’t raced recently, don’t panic! We can still use your workouts and long runs to get a better picture of your current fitness.

2. Does Your Training Support Your Goal Pace?

This is probably the part I care about most as a long time running coach.

We can spend all day plugging numbers into calculators, but eventually I want to know what has actually happened when you’ve tried running that pace.

One of the things I find interesting is how many runners get deep into marathon training without spending much time practicing goal pace. I’m a big fan of keeping most runs easy, but we also need to physically and mentally get comfortable with our marathon pace.

Early in a training cycle, marathon pace might not feel particularly easy and that’s as it should be. It’s why we have a full training cycle to build (assuming you picked a realistic goal pace). As the weeks go on, I want to see you getting more comfortable holding that pace for longer stretches, especially when we start incorporating marathon pace miles into long runs.

For an experienced runner, we might work up to something like 12 miles at goal pace during a 20 mile run. That isn’t a workout I’d give every runner, and for someone training for their first marathon, we may keep the long runs at an easier effort and use shorter workouts to get familiar with the planned pace.

I’m also looking at what happens during those workouts.

• Is your heart rate relatively controlled?
• Are you able to take in enough fuel without digestive issues?
• Does the pace feel sustainable?
• are you finishing every workout feeling like you’ve raced a half marathon?

One difficult workout doesn’t mean your goal is wrong, but if the pace consistently feels like threshold work, then we probably need to reconsider what we’re asking your body to do on race day.

Race day adrenaline is amazing, but it doesn’t magically turn threshold pace into marathon pace!

And remember that you’re not supposed to feel ready to race a marathon at the start of the training cycle. We’re looking for progress over several months, not perfection in every workout.

3. Be Honest About How Marathon Training Went

If you’ve been consistently hitting your mileage, completing your long runs and handling your peak weeks, then we’re likely on track to aim for the original goal pace.

But maybe you missed several weeks because of illness, travel or an injury that took longer to recover from. Or perhaps you completed most of the training, but every long run felt significantly harder than it should have.

We have to be honest about these things and adjust.

I’ve seen runners who really want to stick with a particular goal because they’ve already told everyone they’re going for it. Maybe they’ve even bought the race pace bracelet and told their friends what time to expect them at the finish line. The day is usually quite brutal mentally and no one wants that kind of suffering or experience.

On the flip side, I don’t want you throwing away a goal because of one bad workout! Poor sleep, accumulated fatigue, stress and even a warm day can make a normally manageable pace feel terrible.

I care much more about the overall pattern than one run that didn’t go according to plan.

Long term improvements come from stringing together healthy consistent training cycles. Sometimes a smart goal might feel a little meehhh this time, but is exactly what allows you to chase a much bigger goal next time.

How Much Can You Improve in One Marathon Training Cycle?

This is an expected and fair question, but truly nuanced to answer as a coach.

Newer runners can sometimes make enormous improvements between their first and second marathons. They’ll go from 5 hours to 4:30 simply because they’ve built more endurance, learned how to fuel and gained confidence.

Meanwhile, someone running marathons for 15 years already down to a 3:30 could have a banner cycle shaving one or two minutes off a PR.

We also need to look at what you’re actually changing from one cycle to the next. Did you increase your weekly mileage, become more consistent with strength training, finally stay healthy for an entire training block or learn how to take in more carbs during your long runs?

All of those things can help, but we can’t assume that making one improvement (or drastically changing training) automatically means you’re going to run 20 minutes faster.

I actually wish more runners would look at progress as needing multiple training cycles. It reduces pressures and that my friends often leads to big things.

4. Consider Your Marathon Experience and Timeline

Running your first marathon is a very different experience from lining up for your fifth or tenth.

Experienced marathoners have a better understanding of what it’s going to feel like when the effort really starts building in those later miles. They know how their stomach handles fueling for hours, what happens to their legs after mile 20 and which mental tricks help them keep going when things get uncomfortable.

If you’re training for your first marathon, you simply don’t have all of that information yet, and that’s perfectly normal. I generally want first time marathoners to be a little more conservative with their goal pace because the long runs are still teaching us so much about what they can sustain.

This is also why I like starting a training cycle with a goal range instead of deciding on one exact finish time months before the race.

If your marathon is four months away, we’ve still got time to build fitness and see how your body responds. Maybe you start thinking 4:15 sounds realistic, but after several months of consistent training, your workouts are pointing toward something closer to 4:05.

Fantastic! We can adjust.

On the other hand, if you’ve been dreaming of a four hour marathon and we’re now seven weeks from race day with very little training to support that pace, it’s probably time for a different conversation.

You can certainly make improvements in those final weeks, but you’re not going to suddenly create an entirely new endurance base. And I would much rather see you head into race day with a plan that matches your fitness than spend 26.2 miles trying to prove a calculator right.

How to Use a Marathon Pace Calculator and Pace Chart

I love data. Give me a marathon pace chart or a calculator and I’m perfectly happy to play with numbers.

But I also know that we’re humans and not machines, which is part of why race prediction calculators don’t always get the marathon right.

Most calculators use a recent race performance and a mathematical formula to estimate what you could run at another distance. They’re useful for getting a starting point, particularly if you’ve raced a half marathon, but they can’t measure how well you’ve prepared for the demands of 26.2 miles.

If a calculator says you should be able to run 9:00 pace but every marathon specific workout says 9:00 feels much too hard, I’m going to trust the training.

You can use a marathon pace chart to see exactly what average pace is required for a particular finish time. Here are a few common goals.

These are rounded average paces based on 26.2 miles, so the exact pace you need on your watch may vary slightly depending on how far you actually run.

Let’s say you want to break four hours. You look at the chart and see that you need to average roughly 9:09 per mile, so you start doing all your marathon pace workouts at that speed.

But what if your training is consistently showing that 9:30 is a more sustainable effort?

That doesn’t mean you should automatically try to force 9:09 because you really want that four hour finish. Listen, I love a good round number too, but the finish time you’re hoping for doesn’t determine the fitness you have.

We can absolutely use that four hour goal to guide future training, while choosing a race pace that makes sense for where you are right now.

What Does a Realistic Marathon Goal Look Like?

Let’s say you finished your last marathon in 4:30 and you’ve been hoping to break four hours this time. I love that you’ve got a big goal, but now we need to figure out what has changed since your last race.

If you’ve increased your weekly mileage, stayed consistent with long runs and recently run a half marathon that suggests you’re getting close to that four hour fitness, then we have some reasons to be excited.

But if you’re still running similar volume, workouts and paces to your last training cycle, we might need to rethink how big of a jump is realistic right now.

And that’s where I want you to remember that a 4:15 marathon would still be a 15 minute PR! Sometimes we get so focused on hitting that next round number that we forget to appreciate just how much progress we’re making.

This is especially true when you start comparing your goals to what everyone else is doing. Social media is full of people celebrating huge PRs, but we rarely see all the training history that helped make those performances possible.

Your marathon goal needs to account for YOUR training, not what someone else with a similar half marathon time is planning to run.

In our marathon pacing strategy guide we also talk about how to adjust your goals based on a hilly course, weather and altitude!

Should You Set A, B and C Marathon Goals?

I have mixed feelings about the traditional A, B and C goal setup, even though I know a lot of coaches recommend it. I understand why runners like having several finish times in mind because it feels like a way to make sure race day is successful no matter what happens.

But here’s where I think we have to be a little careful.

A marathon is going to get uncomfortable, even when you’ve done everything right in training. If you have a 4:00 goal, a 4:10 goal and a 4:20 goal, it’s pretty easy to start negotiating with yourself the moment that 4:00 pace feels harder than expected.

That doesn’t mean I’m against having multiple goals! I just prefer that they serve different purposes instead of being three finish times.

In my first race after knee surgery, the biggest goal was getting to the finish line pain free. Once I could tell that was happening, I had the freedom to start thinking about some of the other things I wanted from the day.

For another runner, that might mean having a goal to PR, another to practice fueling consistently and another to finish feeling like they made smart pacing decisions.

I also like having goals that you can control regardless of what happens with the weather or your finish time. Maybe you want to stay on top of taking in 60 to 90 grams of carbs per hour, maintain a positive attitude when things get hard or avoid going out too fast during the opening miles.

Of course, sometimes the weather is terrible or something completely unexpected happens, and then we absolutely need to change the plan. I’m not suggesting you keep forcing a pace that’s clearly no longer appropriate.

I just don’t want you deciding at mile five that your goal is too hard when what you’re actually experiencing is the normal discomfort that comes with racing.

When Should You Finalize Your Marathon Goal Pace?

I generally like runners to start a training cycle with a goal range instead of getting attached to one exact finish time months before the race. We’ve got a lot of training to do, and ideally you’re going to see some improvements along the way!

As you get closer to race day, especially during those final big long runs before tapering, you should have a much better idea of what pace makes sense. That’s when we can compare your workouts, recent race results and overall training consistency to settle on a goal.

And once you’ve figured that out, I want you to practice how you’re going to execute the race rather than continuing to question the number every time you have a tough workout.

This is also where a tune up race can be useful because you’re getting another opportunity to practice your fueling, race morning routine and pacing decisions before the big day.

Just remember that a tune up race doesn’t always need to be an all out effort. Sometimes the benefit is simply getting comfortable with the logistics and learning what you need to work on before your marathon.

I’ve put together a full marathon pacing strategy that breaks down the opening miles, how to handle the middle of the race and when you might actually be able to pick things up in the final 10K.

Looking for more marathon preparation:

• Best marathon shoes
• How to fuel during a marathon

• Avoid marathon training burnout
• Beginner marathon training tips
• What to wear for a marathon